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研究聚焦中美贸易摩擦对中国进口澳大利亚农产品的影响分析，采用面板数据的PPML-DID模型，以2013—2023年中国从澳大利亚及其他三国的农产品进口数据展开实证分析。研究发现贸易摩擦导致中澳农产品贸易呈现“扩张-收缩-反弹”的波动，凸显了我国构建多元化供应链的紧迫性；中美贸易摩擦对中国进口澳大利亚农产品产生显著的抑制效应，导致中国对澳农产品进口量下降幅度高达70.06%,进口额下降63.75%,进口额降幅相较于进口量降幅小约7个百分点；中美贸易摩擦未对中国进口澳大利亚农产品整体价格水平产生系统性影响。在农产品进口种类的异质性方面，小麦进口呈现出稳健的单边上涨态势，大麦进口则明显受到政策影响。因此，中国应深化与南美、东南亚等地区的农业合作，降低由于单一供应源依赖所导致的市场风险。研究为理解复杂贸易环境下中国对外农产品贸易关系的动态变化提供了实证依据，对相关政策制定具有一定的参考价值。
Abstract：This study focused on the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China's import of Australian agricultural products, and adopted the PPML-DID model of panel data to carry out empirical analysis on China's import data of agricultural products from Australia and other three countries from 2013 to 2023.Research has found that trade frictions have led to fluctuations of "expansion-contraction-rebound" in agricultural product trade between China and Australia, highlighting the urgency of building a diversified supply chain in our country.Sino-US trade friction has had a significant inhibitory effect on China's imports of Australian agricultural products.Sino-US trade friction has led to a decline in China's imports of Australian agricultural products by as much as 70.06%,and a decrease in import value of 63.75%.The decline in import value was about 7 percentage points smaller than that in import volume, and the Sino-US trade friction did not have a systemic impact on the overall price level of China's imports of Australian agricultural products.In terms of the heterogeneity of imported agricultural product types, wheat imports have shown a steady and one-sided upward trend, while barley imports have been significantly affected by policies.Therefore, China should deepen agricultural cooperation with regions such as South America and Southeast Asia to reduce market risks caused by reliance on a single supply source.This study provides an empirical basis for understanding the dynamic changes of China's foreign agricultural trade relations in a complex trade environment, and has certain reference value for relevant policy formation.
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(1)数据来源：中国海关总署官网，http：//www.customs.gov.cn/。
(1)在PPML（泊松伪最大似然估计）模型中，表达式1-eβ通常用于计算解释变量（X）变动一个单位时，因变量（Y，通常为计数或非负值）的期望值（E(Y|X)）发生的百分比变化或比例变化。在本次研究中，1-e-1.2067=0.7006;1-e-1.0145=0.6375。
基本信息:
中图分类号:F757.12;F756.11;F323.7;F752.61
引用信息:
[1]段培.中美贸易摩擦对中国进口澳大利亚农产品的影响研究[J].西安石油大学学报(社会科学版),2025,34(06):17-29.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年项目“农业服务外包的技术溢出效应及其空间路径研究”(7190031396); 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数字技术赋能农村新质生产力发展的机理及路径研究”(24YJC790014); 山西省哲学社会科学规划一般课题“脱贫摘帽后乡村振兴发展及返贫预警研究——以山西省36个贫困县为例”(2022YY067); 山西省社科联重点课题研究项目“山西省农业数字化服务平台体系创新研究”(SSKLZDKT2023074)