西安石油大学学报（社会科学版）

在国际贸易环境持续不确定的背景下，美国加征关税政策对中国企业带来了显著负面冲击。基于2011—2023年沪深上市公司数据，系统研究美国加征关税对中国企业全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，关税冲击显著降低了企业全要素生产率，表现出明显的“利润挤压”和“风险规避”效应。机制分析表明，关税上升增加了企业的经营成本，抑制了技术创新与效率提升；关税政策引发的环境不确定性显著上升，降低了企业生产灵活性和生产效率。异质性分析显示，关税冲击主要降低了制造业企业全要素生产率，其中高科技制造业企业由于对海外市场依赖程度更高，关税冲击对其负面影响更为显著。此外，关税冲击对于政府补贴程度高和人力资本水平较高的制造业企业影响较小，表明政府政策与企业人力资本是稳定制造业企业全要素生产率的关键。基于此，提出完善企业外部支持机制，增强应对贸易冲击的韧性；引导企业持续进行技术创新与转型升级，重视人力资本投资；建立稳定透明的政策预期，缓解环境不确定性对企业决策的干扰等政策建议。

In the context of continued uncertainty in the international trade environment, the US tariff policy has brought a significant negative impact on Chinese enterprises.Based on the data of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023,this paper systematically studied the impact of the US tariff increase on the total factor productivity of Chinese enterprises and its mechanism of action.It is found in the research that tariff shocks have significantly reduced the total factor productivity of enterprises, demonstrating obvious "profit squeeze" and "risk aversion" effects.Mechanism analysis indicates that, first of all, the increase in tariffs has raised the operating costs of enterprises.To cope with the compression of profits, enterprises have no choice but to cut their investment in research and development, which has suppressed technological innovation and efficiency improvement.Secondly, the environmental uncertainty caused by tariff policies has significantly increased.Enterprises have become more cautious in investment, expansion and innovation, reducing production flexibility and efficiency.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the tariff shock mainly reduces the total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises, and the negative impact of tariff shock on high-tech manufacturing enterprises is more significant due to their higher dependence on overseas markets, while non-high-tech manufacturing enterprises are less affected.Furthermore, the impact of tariff shocks on manufacturing enterprises with high levels of government subsidies and human capital is relatively small, indicating that government policies and enterprise human capital are the keys to stabilizing the total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises.The research results of this paper provide micro-evidence for a comprehensive understanding of the changes in enterprise production efficiency under the background of trade frictions, and also offer an empirical basis and policy implications for formulating targeted support policies and effectively alleviating the impact of tariffs.